TheReference

  • Subscribe to our RSS feed.
  • Twitter
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • Facebook
  • Digg

Sunday, June 30, 2013

America spying on Germany, EU

Posted on 11:37 PM by Unknown
An ugly image of a double-faced, hypocritical America emerges
Off-topic, philosopher's birthday: One of the greatest polymaths of the history, Gottfried von Leibniz, was born on July 1st, 1646. See this biography written in 2008. His father, a professor of moral philosophy in Leipzig, East of Germany (who was half-German, half-Sorbian i.e. Slavic: I couldn't understand a Sorbian song, looks like a countryside Czech dialect pronoucation of Polish words inspired by some Yugoslav speakers), died when Gottfried was six. From that moment on, he had access to the dad's huge library and was affected by his mother's teachings. He wrote often valuable things in dozens of disciplines but his standards and ingenuity in natural sciences couldn't match Newton's.
Edward Snowden hasn't been assassinated by the U.S. government yet so he is starting to make some real impact, unfortunately a negative one so far. The media such as the Guardian told us about the anger in Europe that erupted after some European countries' officials were shown documents indicating that Prism is spying on EU in general and Germany in particular:
Berlin accuses Washington of cold war tactics over snooping
The extremely promising Euro-American free-trade pact has been threatened after we learned that half a billion of phone calls, text messages, and e-mails are tapped by the U.S. every month. I can't really imagine how this huge amount of information may be effectively monitored, how many (invisible?) people the U.S. intelligence services are employing etc.



It would be great if people kept their heads cool because the trade pact could be a great thing and if they tried to see all the things in the context – every major power is spying on someone and Snowden actually indicated that the U.K. is more brutal in this respect than the U.S., a subtlety that the Guardian and others fail to mention – but on the other hand, I won't hide that I am kind of troubled by the revelations, too.

I generally like the Americans' character but this story highlights some of its darker sides including an unmatched level of hypocrisy, a hardwired hardcore centralization sentiment, and a generally poor understanding of (and respect for) other nations' culture and inner working. I will get to these points momentarily.




The NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium were the starting point for the NSA to obtain some EU politicians' (and many other people's) sensitive data in an unfriendly way. The offices of the European Union have been a major target. Well, let me say that these Eurobastards should be monitored – but they should be monitored by the European citizens because the European citizens are those who are affected by the Eurobastards' acts most intensely.

The NSA hasn't told us anything about these acts – without Snowden, we wouldn't even know that the spying was going on – so it is hard to present the U.S. spies' behavior as a friendly one even if I dislike most tendencies in the EU today.




But Germany is the main targeted nation state. The American scrutiny of Germany was elevated to a new level sometime in 2010 – clearly during Obama's tenure. In fact, Germany was placed in the same box as China, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia while the English-speaking countries such as the U.K., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand were included in the less monitored, more friendly category. It is hard to convince oneself that this surprising categorization of Germany occurred because the U.S. services haven't detected the violent resignation of Adolf Hitler as the German chancellor yet.

All these revelations are worrisome because they're so hostile. It isn't hard to understand that stealing half a billion of secret messages from a nation every month isn't exactly a friendly behavior. But aside from the intrinsic hostility and the lack of trust, the documents unmask some troubling aspects of Obama's America's thinking – and perhaps America's thinking in general.

First, you can't really believe current American officials – and perhaps other Americans – when they praise you as a great ally and friend. In particular, Obama has repeatedly praised Germany as an extraordinary ally. He did so a few days ago. But even if you return to November 2009, a moment a few months before the new wave of spying began (and a moment when it was probably already under construction), he said things like:
"I should just note that Germany has been an extraordinarily strong ally on a whole host of international issues," Obama said. "Chancellor Merkel has been an extraordinary leader on the issue of climate change [oops]. And the United States, Germany, and countries around the world I think are all beginning to recognize why it is so important that we work in common in order to stem the potential catastrophe that could result if we continue to see global warming continuing unabated [blah blah blah]."
He has always had a big mouth but a sensible person just can't take his words seriously. These comments don't apply just to his remarks about the friendship.

America has been among the most vocal defenders of the preposterous meme that the ethnically, culturally, and historically defined nations and their interests belong to the past. We may hear this total rubbish all the time – after all, nations are defined by their territory and values only, and so on. But when you look under the surface, you may see who are the "real" allies and who are not. The "real" allies just happen to be those who speak the same language. A coincidence? I don't think so.

Also, America repeatedly claims that individual citizens and all the ethnic groups are participating in the decision-making process. That's how America – according to its public proclamations – imagines the mechanism of the decision-making process, at least in democracies. However, as soon as you look under the lid, you see something entirely, entirely different. The U.S. agencies are literally obsessed by the (fundamentally misguided) question "who is really controlling Europe". So we have learned that they have decided that some politicians in Brussels and Berlin have this power.

It's just amazing. This obsession breathtakingly contrasts with the publicly available proclamations, with America's declared will to help the oppressed nations and ethnic minorities to decide about their fate. In reality, the power in Europe isn't as centralized as the naive, geography-challenged folks in the U.S. agencies seem to imagine. Most political decisions are still being made at the national level. This is true even (or especially?) when it comes to the foreign policy issues.

Germans represent about 1/6 of the EU population (the most populous single nation) and Germany's contribution to the European GDP (22%) is somewhat (a little bit) larger than that, much like Germany's contribution to the power and decision-making in the EU (30%?). But it's just nowhere near 100 percent. Germany's opinions may be correlated with the ultimate decisions by the EU in a percentage of cases that may approach 100 percent but that doesn't mean that Germany is actually behind this correlation. In most cases, it just means that other EU countries or politicians agree with those in Germany and Germany agrees with them – in a balanced way.

At any rate, the revelations do reinforce the picture in which a majority of the Americans – including most of the bureaucrats in the intelligence services – are just too stupid and too disrespectful when it comes to foreign countries and the idea that Europe is composed of dozens of largely independent nations seems just too difficult for them to grasp. They're obsessed by the idea to simplify this complex world and look for a framework in which the political arrangement of Europe is fully analogous to the arrangement of the U.S. Well, it's not! American spies may spend decades by the search for Henry Kissinger's notorious and proverbial "one telephone number of Europe" but after they penetrate through trillions of telephone calls, they won't find anything because there is no single telephone number of Europe.

Politicians from many European countries are demanding explanations. I don't think that there's much to explain here. The stories are almost certainly true. It's pretty normal for countries to spy on others which is the actual explanation why America is doing it, too. We shouldn't investigate whether the U.S. spies on Europe – it clearly does. Instead, people should try to find out who else may be spying because some of the analogous information that we weren't shown yet may be much more dangerous for us.

To summarize, the very fact that Prism has targeted the communication in Europe isn't too surprising to me. The detailed ideology – ideas about the way how Europe and the world do operate and how they should operate – seem more troublesome to me. At any rate, a sensible person should learn that big words about friendship, equality of nations, and democracy spoken by folks like Barack Obama – and his very smile – shouldn't be taken seriously. In your real decisions, all these things should be ignored. While Obama himself has won the 2008 and 2013 elections as the ultimate king and symbol of hypocrisy and the search for the most politically correct, kitschy image (and yes, something as irrelevant as his colorful racial background was the main fad that was helping him to win both recent elections), I am afraid that these revelations tell us about the character of many more people than just Barack Obama.

And that's the memo.
Read More
Posted in Czechoslovakia, Europe, France, politics | No comments

Saturday, June 29, 2013

Bob Carter's academic job "not renewed"

Posted on 11:00 AM by Unknown
Climate alarmists' dirty hands were very likely behind the scenes

I met Bob Carter (and his wife) 2.5 years ago during a seminar he was delivering in Prague's Auto Moto Club, an event organized by the think tank (CEP) led by Václav Klaus, then the Czech president.

This Australian scholar is a geologist but his talks about the climate are perfectionist, comprehensive, comprehensible, balanced, reasonable, and focused on the most important points that are overlooked by many others. He is always careful to see things in their proper context and to assign them the right importance. He has also presented some special issues such as the Australian carbon tax in a very meaningful way.



Equally importantly, he is a pleasant and peaceful Gentleman and an entertaining companion with some interesting stories to tell.

For all those reasons and others, I was shocked by news published on Jo Nova's blog. Bob explained to me that he retired from a tenured position in 2001 but because he couldn't become inactive, he continued as an honorary Adjunct Fellow of the James Cook University, Queensland, Australia.




He was supervising a student, had an access to the library he was using in his research, and it cost nothing to the university. But this position was suddenly stopped and even his very access to the library and other tools needed for scholarly work were suspended. It doesn't require too much work to find out that some climate alarmist pressure groups were behind the decision of the cowardly officials at the university.

Needless to say, Bob Carter wasn't "fired" because he ceased to be a top scholar – at least among scientists of his age – with a perfectly rational and scientific type of argumentation. Just on the contrary, he was "fired" because he's become even better than years ago.




At least one may find a journalist, in this case a man called David Sparkes, who think the same thing about these events:
University dumps out-of-step climate change sceptic (Townsville Bulletin)
The article reminds us of 32 years that Bob spent at the university he still respects, including its other good scholars (but let me admit that Bob is obviously the only scholar at JCU I know, unless I forgot about someone else); about his book; about shows with Andrew Bolt, and so on.

Bob says nice things about the university – it's probably partly inevitable given his being a Gentleman and those 32 years of his life. But I haven't spent 32 years there so I may easily say something really tough about that school – it's on its way to be renamed as John Cook University.

Bob Carter's and (Australian journalist and illustrator) John Spooner's new book, Taxing Air, will be out in a week or so. I can't find a usable amazon.com link for you to purchase it so far but you may buy it through the link in the previous sentence and this is a topic I (or he) will write about again.

Right now, I am just going to watch a 1993 film rendition of the 1990 novel by another skeptic and late TRF reader Michael Crichton, Jurassic Park. I haven't seen it for many, many years...
Read More
Posted in climate, freedom vs PC, science and society | No comments

Dobrodošli u EU, Hrvatska

Posted on 12:13 AM by Unknown
It means Welcome to the EU, Croatia, just to be sure

In two days, Croatia will become the 28th member state of the European Union. I think it is positive news for Europe and Croatia's parameters justify its membership because they don't differ too much from those of Slovenia, so far the only post-Yugoslav EU member state.



Vinetou and Old Shatterhand, two most famous Americans, on a lake in the Plitvice Lake Region, Croatia

The European Parliament has already welcomed Croatia as well: by creating a Facebook web page with a huge coat-of-arms of the puppet fascist state of Croatia during the World War II. ;-) Nice. This shows how much understanding the EU has for its citizens and nations.




Croatia has been a part of Yugoslavia (with one name or another) between 1918 and the early 1990s when the federal state violently decayed. Before that, it belonged to the Roman Empire, Austria-Hungary, and other empires. Whenever I had to think about their wars against the Serbs, I just couldn't fully understand the tension as they speak the same language, really.

Now I learned that it's not just the religion – Croatia is mostly Roman Catholic. Their ethnic (I really mean biological, genetic) origin may actually be Iranian, not Slavic (Serbs are surely Slavs) and it can make some difference. If you think about the contemporary Iran, you may find it genuinely ironic when you realize that the more Iranian part of the Yugoslav nation is the most Roman Catholic one, the most Western one, in a sense.




Croatia is a top tourist destination for us. Almost every Czech has been vacationing there at least once. I have been there about 4 times. The Croatian economy is based on services, including tourism. The GDP per capita is $18,000 or so, about 3/4 of the Czech figure. Their current president and prime minister are left-wing. The economy isn't doing too well, with the unemployment near 20%, about 2% annual GDP drop, and so on (I would probably blame many things on their excessively high salaries), but these are temporary details. I am confident that in the medium and long run, it is pretty much a healthy economy.

Their currency is one kuna, which means "marten" (both in Croatian and Czech), because in the Middle Ages, marten pelts were used as banknotes. One euro is about 7.5 kunas. So kuna is still over 3 korunas which isn't too tiny and it means that they still actively use the fractions. 1/100 of a kuna is called a lipa (in Czech: lípa; it's actually our national tree) which means a linden lime tree.

I think that the Croats are friendly. Financially, they probably prefer German tourists who spend somewhat more money than the Czechs but the times when a Czech tourist would be assumed to be a nomad who eats his own sandwich in the middle of a road and spends nothing belong to the past. The Czech and Croato-Serbian languages sound familiar to one another, they use similar roots. However, sometimes the similarity is deceiving. The meanings of similar words may be slightly different as well as completely different.

For example, "plivat" means "to spit" in Czech but "to swim" in Croatian (to swim in Czech is "plavat"). Also, perhaps more seriously, "cura" [tsura] is a girl, a babe, a neutral or positive word for a young woman in the Croatian language. The closely related word "coura" means a "slut" in Czech. The Czech tourists and their Croatian hosts are usually aware of these basic traps and they make fun out of them. If you think about the diversification of the meaning of the word "c[o]ura" that had to occur in the past, it probably means that there had to be a moment in one of the two countries' history when it was either normal for a young girl to be a slut or when being a slut was viewed as a positive thing by the society (at least the part of the society that had power over the mutation of the meaning of similar key words). Otherwise the meaning of the world couldn't have drifted in this way. Do you agree? ;-)

Czechia's T-Mobile, a telephone service operator, produced about a dozen of TV commercials in the most recent year that play games with various Croatian words known to Czechs. For example, there's a town (and/or name) Zadar in Croatia that sounds like "zadara", a Czech word meaning "for free". So a group of ski jumpers wants to "call Zadara" (call Mr Zadar or call for free) and they do lots of crazy things. The Yugoslav languages sound a bit funny to us. The more Southern related languages may sound more funny to the people in the North – something that the Poles who find the Czech language immensely entertaining know very well. I don't claim that Polish doesn't sound funny to us but there's some sense in which more Southern languages sound more similar to a child speak.

The Croatian landscape is pretty. Croatia controls most of the Adriatic Sea's coastline that belonged to Yugoslavia. There are the Plitvice lakes and other cool things, too. Last night, they were airing the last "Vinetou and Old Shatterhard" movie from the series shot by Germany and others in 1968 or so. Some of the picturesque scenes claiming to be North America (including the image at the top) were shot in the Plitvice Lake Region of Croatia. The movies are based on novels about native Americans written by Karl May, a German author. As kids, we would probably name Vinetou (an Apache) and Old Shatterhand (his pale-skinned "brother") to be the two most famous Americans. I have always been amazed that almost no one knew these two guys in the U.S.! ;-)

The EU membership may tame some problems of Croatia that result from their location in the Balkans and from the hot temperament associated with the nations that live there. On the other hand, the increase of diversity and common sense that Croatia (and its 4.3 million citizens) brings may dilute some ultracentralization, Soviet-like tendencies in the EU and countries like mine may be gaining a new natural ally in various questions that matter. Slovenia hasn't really played this role because this nation seems to be obsessed with the right behavior that the EU overlords will like (I mean that the Slovenes have been a bit like swots). I am sure that the Croats are less opportunist and submissive.

Dobrodošli u EU, Hrvatska.

Croatia is great but there can only be one country that wins the most important discipline. Czechia has safely won the Bloomberg tournament searching for the most vice-prone nation in the world. With 64.5 points, it was well ahead of Slovenia at 58.8 and others such as Australia, Armenia, Bulgaria, and Spain. The subdisciplines were alcohol, drug use, cigarette consumption, and losses in gambling over GDP. Too bad that other disciplines such as the divorce rate, out-of-wedlock births, the working womanhours of prostitutes per capita, and so on weren't included because our hegemony would be even more striking. ;-)

More seriously, I am surely not a typical representative of my nation in those things but I do view this high score as correlated with the atheism and the "true freedom" that exists in Czechia. Whether you find it a blasphemy or not, smoking, drinking, sniffing, and gambling are usually not lethal and they even increase the sense that "life is worth living" for those who do such things. I think that in most countries beneath us, such ideas are taboo.

On the opposite side of the table, you find Zambia. Would you prefer to live in Czechia or Zambia? Paradoxically enough, the drug-civil-war-stricken Mexico was among the 5 least vice-prone countries, too.
Read More
Posted in Europe, politics | No comments

Friday, June 28, 2013

Strings 2013

Posted on 1:52 AM by Unknown
Guest blog by Daniel Grumiller of ITP Vienna, a participant

Lubos asked me if I would write a short summary of Strings 2013, and since I appreciate the cohomology of his blog [all blog entries, modding out the non-physical state(ment)s] I decided to oblige.

If you are interested in the actual content of the talks I suggest you listen to them (or view the slides) here.




If you want an excellent and witty summary please watch Jeff Harvey's summary talk or view his slides. I cannot do a better job than Jeff, though I will add a few, mostly irrelevant, personal comments at the bottom of this text.

The outlook by the "higher authority" can be found here. The final conclusion by David Gross is that string theory is alive and kicking, with which I agree.




Here are a couple of miscellaneous comments, which I just add to convey an epsilon of the excitement that accompanied this conference, despite of the absence of "revolutions".
  • Strings 2013 was extremely well-organized. While the same remark applies to some previous Strings like in Munich last year, this time everything went so smoothly that you hardly noticed the stress that inevitably comes with the organization of such an event. Much like good electrical wiring in a house, you notice that it is done perfectly through not noticing it at all, except that all the lights work.
  • Seoul is an excellent venue. It is my first time here, and I enjoy very much the city, the culture, the excellent subway, the food, the hospitality and the alphabet.
  • The talks were brilliant. Let me not rank them, except that from a purely aesthetic perspective Greg Moore's talk certainly won the first prize. Just look at p.2 of his talk. From a technical perspective, I was impressed by all the talks of the "younger generation" (see next item).
  • Jeff Harvey provided a \(\ZZ_2\) classification of the audience into PhD before/after 1999 and gave two separate sets of three questions. If you have not done the quiz on p.9 of his slides you could do it now. Belonging to the young generation, I was tempted to give the answer "four" to his first question, but he was only counting down from three (ok, actually my answer to part of his tricritical question differs surely from what Jeff would have counted as the correct answer; I would have said that \(c=7/10\) is special since, together with \(c=1/2\), the corresponding CFT is dual to Einstein gravity in 3 dimensions)
  • Given that I work on related issues it was great for me to see again the presence of higher spin gravity (Igor Klebanov's and Matthias Gaberdiel's talks, as well as David Gross' comment on his third big question). But I also enjoyed the variety of excellent review talks and selected technical talks. Inevitably, in some of the talks I felt a bit like in Jeff Harvey's (or Gary Larson's) cartoon on p.7 of his talk.
  • The gong show was again interesting. If you do not know this format: every speaker has at most 5 minutes, after which the screen goes dark and the micro is switched off. There were 13 speakers. If this sounds stressful for speakers, organizers, audience and the chairman you get the right idea. It is still a good item at such a type of conference and impressive how much (useful) info some people can convey in this short time. The last gong-speaker, Michael Gary, gave an excellent summary of our \(W_N^{(2)}\) gravity paper.
  • The banquet was phantastic, both from a culinary and a performance view point. I also enjoyed Neil Lambert's humor in his dinner speech, though I am not sure all his remarks were appreciated. He mentioned that he did not follow Jeff Harvey's 1998 Macarena/Maldacena performance with a "Gaiotto style" performance since Davide was absent, a remark which earned applause of relief. To compensate, the organizers displayed this video after the last talk today, while people were leaving the auditorium (I guess the non-younger generation left more quickly at that point).
  • Strings 2014 will be in Princeton.
In conclusion, Strings 2013 was an excellent conference in every respect, in particular from a scientific perspective.


The text below by LM was posted on 6/27.

Seoul, Korea is the place where the music for Newton's Pendulum Gangnam Style was born.



Xmphysics released the video above just 3 weeks ago. The most successful rendition of this song-plus-dance has attracted over 1.6 billion views on YouTube. Seoul is also the place where the string theory annual conference takes place.
Strings 2013: talks, titles, PDF, videos
The videos from the talk are being posted via YouTube: you should click at the blue video icon and then the Quicktime-like icon on the next page. Incidentally, I like the 1-second jingle at the beginning of the YouTube videos and I think it's sensible for conferences to post their videos via YouTube instead of various do-it-yourself video frameworks.

Those of us who are following what's going on aren't surprised by most of the topics that the speakers – famous and well-known enough string theorists – have been thinking about recently.

One of the 30-minute talks I am going to watch – I am watching it now, in fact – is Shamit Kachru's talk about the Mathieu Moonshine which I already mentioned in when it was discovered. The monstrous moonshine has been discussed on this blog many times; in string theory, the Monster group has been linked to a Leech-lattice-based compactification of string theory as well as the pure AdS3 gravity.

But the Mathieu group is one of the smaller sporadic groups among those 26 or 27 ones and the moonshine links it to some calculable properties of K3 compactifications of string theory. Shamit's talk is nice but he says some wrong things, too. For example, moonshine isn't called moonshine just because it is "enigmatic" but because Andrew Ogg promised a bottle of Jack Daniel's whiskey (moonshine) in his paper to the person who explains a moonshine-based relationship.

Otherwise, John Schwarz has already given an introduction you may watch. Nima Arkani-Hamed about their new way to calculate the gauge theory amplitudes. Shiraz Minwalla and Dan Jafferis chose topics related to Chern-Simons theory. Rob Myers, Juan Maldacena, and Tadashi Takayanagi talk about entanglement's links to holography and spacetime topology while Joe Polchinski tries to update the so far seemingly invalid AMPS discussion of the firewalls in particular and the black hole interior in general. He clearly tries to react to Maldacena-Susskind and I will study his talk in more detail later.

You can read all the titles and topics yourself, many of them are interesting.

I've watched Kachru's, Maldacena's, and Polchinski's talk. There were lots of interesting things in them but Joe's talk is just plain wrong. He believes to have a newer version of the AMPS argument – a direct proof that a generic black hole microstate must have every internal field-theoretical mode in an excited state, with the average occupation number well above zero (around 10:00 in the talk). This is, of course, bullshit. Even if you consider a relatively young black hole, much younger than the Page time, it's easy to see that the more empty the black hole is, the higher entropy it has. As it is initially losing some energy by the quasinormal/ringing modes, its entropy is still increasing. Once these ringing modes are emitted, the entropy nearly stabilizes – it gets maximized – and of course that the corresponding value of the internal field theory field modes' occupation numbers converges to zero in this regime. I am talking about field modes expressed in a freely falling frame. Of course that some accelerated observers will see Unruh's radiation whose modes' average occupation number is nonzero but this is not new and it doesn't contradict anything about complementarity. Polchinski concludes that CFT in AdS/CFT is an incomplete theory of the bulk. Holy cow. If AdS/CFT says something about the quantum gravity in the bulk, it's true and it's the whole story.

BTW Michael Gary (thanks, Daniel!) cleverly asked Joe what prevented the firewalls from destroying any place because it's the Rindler horizon. Joe answered that the states of the Rindler horizon that don't have the firewall are non-generic – generic states have it, too. That may be a cute way out but we may still consider the numerous states that don't have the Rindler horizon. Their entropy may still be high, within this set, there's no firewall, and this set may still be analogous to all the black hole microstates in the black hole case. Andy Strominger said that there should also be other ways to see the firewalls if they existed. Joe interrupted Andy before Andy asked the question but the question was finally asked, anyway. Joe tried to answer the question by mixing firewalls with fuzzballs. Just to be sure, Sumir Mathur of fuzzballs considers Joe's firewalls wrong. Andy asked why the firewalls were a quantum gravity issue – as it is claim to invalidate arbitrarily large black holes in GR. Joe answered that he believed the nonlocality in QG to be arbitrarily brutal. This is clearly a doomed attitude because classical GR is one of the defining features of the general concept of QG and if we can't isolate any subset of regimes in which classical GR applies, then the notion of QG is clearly insufficiently constrained to be well-defined. Daniel Harlow made similar comments etc.

I will probably watch some talk about a solid discipline to improve my tastes, e.g. Xi Yin's talk...
Read More
Posted in guest, science and society, string vacua and phenomenology, stringy quantum gravity | No comments

Thursday, June 27, 2013

Jacques Distler on his lost new physics bet

Posted on 9:46 PM by Unknown
Jacques Distler of Austin lost a $750 bet to Tommaso Dorigo and wrote an article about it:
Guest Post: Jacques Distler, Why I Lost $750 On New Physics At The LHC (original text)
They ultimately agreed that Distler wins if a new-particle-like 5-sigma discrepancy from the Standard Model is announced within 12 months after the moment when the LHC has had accumulated 10 inverse femtobarns of collisions (the energy was allowed to be just 8 TeV, it seems). Gordon Watts supported Distler's bet by another $250 so if he concedes as well, and I think he should, Dorigo should be $1,000 richer because the conditions were fulfilled several weeks or months ago.



It was a risky bet for both sides. Would Distler make a similar bet on the 2015 run?
The answer, I think, is: not unless you were willing to give me some substantial odds (at least 5–1; if I think about it, maybe even higher).
Well, my bet against Jester turned out to be effectively a bet on the early 2015 run because we're talking about 30 inverse femtobarns which haven't been accumulated yet (we're around 27) and our bet is 100-to-1 which means that I may win $10,000 but will lose $100 only. You see that your humble correspondent was expecting better conditions and when it came to the assertions, he was more cautious, but just by a factor of three, than Distler and Watts.




I think that my odds of winning remain substantial because the 13 TeV collision energy of events that will start to be produced in April 2015 opens a whole new game.

If you keep your energy constant, it's pretty much necessary to have at least 3-sigma excesses if you want to see 5-sigma excesses at a doubled or tripled total luminosity. After all, the results are changing quasi-continuously if you're adding new collisions to your dataset. When the luminosity jumps 6 times or so, you get "completely new data" because 5-sigma deviations in the new data may easily come from bumps that were expected to be smaller than 2 sigma, and therefore invisible, in the 6 times smaller dataset.




However, with that doubling in the energy, the rules are completely different because particles of certain masses would be almost impossible to discover at 8 TeV but they may be instantly discovered at 13 TeV, perhaps after an inverse femtobarn of data if not earlier. So Jester of Resonaances cares about his $10,000, he shouldn't sleep well until mid 2015 or so. ;-)

Yes, I surely think that even with all the facts we know, the probability that new physics will be discovered in the early 2015 run is substantially greater than 1%. In other words, my position in the bet is worth jealousy. The new particles that may be found may still be much much lighter than 1 TeV. Tons of scenarios with the LSP at 130 GeV (like in the Fermi hints) or even 8.6 GeV (like in the dark matter direct search experiments) remain viable.

Jacques starts his article with some memories of Steven Weinberg on C-SPAN talking about the SSC two decades ago; and about the way how energy is divided between the partons inside the proton so that the actual energy scale you may easily probe is smaller than the proton energy (except for an ever smaller fraction of the collisions in which the proton energy is increasingly more concentrated in one parton).

Distler ends up by saying that the probability that the LHC will ever see new physics has dropped significantly; and the conditional probability that the new physics, assuming that it will be found, will be supersymmetry has increased because the other types of new physics were disfavored much more rapidly. I agree with those statements assuming that the word "significantly" is understood in my way. It's significant but surely not totally qualitative. Maybe there would be a disagreement between Jacques and me if the meaning of the words were clarified. The disagreement could boil to this statement by Jacques:
Still, there are (or were) lots of scenarios with new physics, accessible to the LHC. And theorists, being perennial optimists, put a lot of effort into exploring those scenarios.
I disagree and I have always disagreed with this definition of optimism of a theorist; it is a bias in the literature, not legitimate optimism. A theorist thinking like myself is equally pleased if Nature obeys nice laws with a new particle waiting at 150 GeV; or nice laws with a new particle waiting at 3,000 GeV. If you're equally pleased by both possibilities, you can't say that believing in one of them is "optimism" and believing in the other is "pessimism". Preferring the former possibility – to the extent of selectively writing papers about the first possibility – is just wrong and if the bulk of phenomenologists are acting in this way, it is (and actually was) a case of group think. An experimenter dreaming about his own discovery – assuming that the experimenter's job is to maximize the probability (times importance) of a discovery – may call the belief in low-lying new physics fruits "optimism". But a theorist's job is to find the truth so he simply can't afford the asymmetric perception of different, equally justifiable or likely scenarios. There are lots of "big desert-like" scenarios where – up to a possible exception of SUSY – nothing happens between the electroweak scale and the Planck scale (or at least the GUT scale). I think they're pretty in their characteristic way so the belief that they're true can't be called it a "pessimistic belief".

"Hopes" in the new physics around the corner were always (mostly) motivated by some phenomenologists' desire to increase their odds to get famous quickly (so claiming that this bias was due to their "virtue of optimism" is completely obscuring the true motivations) and the impact of this desire on the literature may be classified as a distortion of the facts because the composition of the literature reflects their desires rather than available facts and it's always wrong for theory literature to be skewed by similar non-fact-based pressures. So this bias describing "new physics around the corner" was surely wrong and I always thought it was wrong but this wrongness doesn't imply that the LHC will never see new physics. Jacques Distler may switch to an opposite extreme but this won't make new physics at the LHC in 2015 impossible just like his "optimism" didn't guarantee early LHC discoveries of BSM physics.

I believe that as the LHC is increasing the total luminosity and/or energy kind of exponentially, the probability of a new discovery per unit time is staying pretty much constant because a sensible distribution of physical phenomena between the low-energy scales and the Planck scale is pretty much uniform on the log axis (you may even estimate the density of particles per decade from the particles we already know). The idea that if the LHC finds something new, it has to happen immediately, is unwarranted. Well, the LHC made a qualitative leap at the very beginning because it had more energy than any earlier experiment. It only found the Higgs boson as the quasi-new physics. But that doesn't mean that almost the whole space of possibilities has been exhausted. Now, the LHC is moving the frontiers of science more gradually.

It's plausible that LUX will find the sub-10-GeV dark matter particle before the end of 2013 i.e. years before the LHC will say anything about it. The two years' vacation at the LHC may substantially shrink the collider's competitiveness in discovering new physics.
Read More
Posted in experiments, LHC, science and society, string vacua and phenomenology | No comments

Wednesday, June 26, 2013

The IPCC and the Flat Earth Society may merge now

Posted on 11:07 PM by Unknown
Anthony Watts has highlighted an article in Salon.com,
Actually, even the Flat Earth Society believes in climate change.
The president of the International Flat Earth Society, Daniel Shenton, has endorsed the climate hysteria.



Even Shenton realizes that it makes sense for others to make fun of his society (whose views are "unorthodox", using his language) and to present it as an example of things that are absurd. When someone believes preposterous, patently and demonstrably false propositions, we sometimes compare him to the Flat Earth Society. Shenton is kind and doesn't take these references personally.

We sometimes use the Flat Earth analogy to humiliate the climate alarmism as well except that in the case of the climate alarmism, the similarity between the two examples of bad science goes well beyond their being bad science. The climate alarmists and the Flat Earthers build on extremely similar if not isomorphic misconceptions, flawed assumptions, mistakes in their reasoning, and on analogous demagogic verbal tricks to fool others and themselves.




The basic similarity is the two societies' dependence on excessive linear extrapolations taken well beyond the self-evident point where the extrapolation could be justified. What do I mean?




Well, it's simple. The Flat Earthers look around their headquarters and they see that the Earth is apparently flat. So they extrapolate this observation: the whole Earth and every place where we can walk or drive must be flat, too. Everywhere. Indefinitely.

The climate alarmists are doing the same thing. They see an apparent increasing trend in the graph of the global mean temperature since the late 1970s so they promote it to a law of physics. Such a trend must surely have a cause that will last indefinitely. It will produce warming everywhere and at all times.

In fact, the degree of unjustified extrapolation is worse in the case of climate alarmists. The Flat Earthers think that the Earth is flat but the plane into which the surface of the Earth belongs is an arbitrary plane that is not claimed to be parallel to another plane you may have thought about – such as the ecliptic.

On the other hand, the climate alarmists assume that before the humans began to influence the climate, the global mean temperature was not only flat but constant. The slope was equal to zero. Needless to say, there is overwhelming evidence that the graphs of the global mean temperature were never flat for extended periods of time and lots of evidence that the Earth isn't flat everywhere, either. But none of the two groups cares because the opinion that "it's right for the Earth or the Earth's climate to be flat" is a dogma that is more important for them than any direct or indirect empirical evidence, than any contradiction one may find in their belief system.

To discuss these issues with some real-world quotes in mind, let me copy some seemingly semi-intelligent sentences offered by the president of the Flat Earth Society, Daniel Shenton:
Sticking your head in the sand might make you feel safer, but it’s not going to protect you from the coming storm.
Can't you just dig through our planet to the other side of the planar Earth where no storm is coming now?

Oops. This wasn't even semi-intelligent but it wasn't Shenton's sentence, either. It came from the president of the U.S. called Barack Obama. The quote by Shenton I want to discuss is this one:
I accept that climate change is a process which has been ongoing since beginning of detectable history, but there seems to be a definite correlation between the recent increase in world-wide temperatures and man’s entry into the industrial age. If it’s a coincidence, it’s quite a remarkable one. We may have experienced a temperature increase even without our use of fossil fuels since the Industrial Revolution, but I doubt it would be as dramatic as what we’re seeing now.
I hope everyone will agree that I am not unfairly humiliating the climate alarmists because the structure of Shenton's propositions looks civilized and the content is pretty much identical to what we often hear from other climate alarmists, too. Still, it's completely wrong and crucially rooted in the Flat Earth reasoning.

Why it's wrong?

First of all, science has accumulated overwhelming evidence of upticks and dips not only in recent decade or centuries but also in recent thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions, hundreds of millions, and billions of years, too. We are sure that there have been significant temperature changes not only before the industrial age but before the humans were walking on the Earth (whether it was flat or round), too.

So if you try to quantify the correlation based on extended periods of time which is really needed because you have to compare the industrial age with a non-industrial age to back a statement similar to Shenton's, you will inevitably conclude that there is no correlation here, at least not a statistically significant one.

Moreover, it's not true that the fossil fuel-driven climate change theory predicts that the temperatures start to rise as soon as someone declares the industrial age to have started. Instead, the global mean temperature should be correlated with the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. These two quantities seem correlated in the last 100 years or so but the bulk of the correlation is explained by the fact that both quantities saw some overall rise during that time – much like thousands of completely different quantities that are surely not causally connected to the temperature rise.

There's no detailed high-frequency correlation between the two functions of time; at the level of interannual temperature variations, the claimed CO2-temperature correlation surely breaks down. One may say that in every century, it's almost certain that one sees either an increasing trend or a decreasing trend – the linear regression is extremely unlikely to produce a vanishing slope – and because the sign of the slope of the CO2 concentration is well-defined in pretty much every century as well (surely in the 20th century in which the rise of CO2 was dominated by our activities), there's a 50% probability that these two signs agree. A 50% confidence-level argument is much less than 1-sigma evidence. It's no evidence at all. And if we acknowledge that the anticorrelation could be abused as well (and yes, some people have been hysterical about a new coming ice age in the 1970s, too), we would be 100% guaranteed to see this kind of evidence (correlated signs between the CO2 rise and temperature rise in a given temperature) even if we assume that there exists no causal relationship between the quantities whatsoever.

So the strength of this "evidence" is really strictly equal to zero. The "remarkable" observed pattern has to be there regardless of the validity of the theory about fossil-fuel-driven temperature changes.

Both the president of the Flat Earth society and the majority of the climate alarmists also suffer from the aforementioned "wild extrapolation" disease as well as the fear of proper quantitative comparisons of numbers.

Shenton talks about a recent uptick of the global mean temperature which has more or less continued for a century or so (although it's easy to find a recent 15-year period without any warming and 30-year periods in the middle that display no warming, too). For Shenton, it's already a "coincidence" that he's willing to promote to a permanent law of physics.

As I already said, this unmasks his characteristic Flat Earth reasoning, something that most climate alarmists share with him. When a quantity increases for a century, a pretty long time, it still doesn't mean that the rise is gonna be permanent. It is just circumstantial evidence that the typical periodicity of some of the Fourier components that importantly contribute to the function of time is probably longer than a century. But if the function \(\sin(\omega t)/\omega\) changes its slope by less than by \(O(100\%)\) per century, it doesn't imply that \(\omega=0\) i.e. that the function is \(t\), a linear function of time. Instead, it just means that \(\omega\) is smaller than the inverse century or so.

There may exist – and at least in some contexts, there undeniably exist – many cycles and processes whose characteristic timescale is longer than a century. The observation that the trend has a more or less uniform sign over some period of time simply doesn't imply that a constant such as \(\omega\) is strictly zero or that its inverse \(1/\omega\) is strictly infinite (again, it would be an isomorphic mistake to the Flat Earthers' flawed "derivation" that the curvature radius of the Earth has to be infinite because it seems very large relatively to our bodies). The observation of "slow changes" only means that we can suspect that an inequality for \(\omega\) holds. We're measuring the upper bound on \(\omega\) that dominates in certain kinds of changes of the temperature.

Shenton also mentions that he "doubts" that the increase of the temperature would be "as dramatic as what we see now". Again, this is a carbon copy of statements you may hear from hundreds of his fellow climate alarmists. This statement is also completely wrong; and it is utterly irrational. The irrationality has two main components encoded in the words "doubt" and "dramatic". Concerning the word "doubt", Shenton seems to suggest that the temperature change without fossil fuel would be lower than the observed one because he "doubts" it would be equally large. But he doesn't offer any argument or a calculation of the "fossil-fuel-free temperature change" so the word "doubt" only means that he predecided what he wanted to believe. This whole line of propositions pretending to be an argument is a classical case of circular reasoning. He doubts that fossil fuels could be unimportant which is why he also has to doubt that the natural temperature change could be comparable to the observed one and he adjusts all other opinions (and sometimes facts) to his preconceptions, too. But there's actually nothing whatsoever to support his beliefs.

What about the word "dramatic"? What does it mean for an increase of temperatures in 100 years to be "dramatic"? If you're rational, it means that it's greater than a threshold that you choose to divide the "dramatic" and "not dramatic" intervals. Now, a rational person must ask – without irrational prejudices – how high this threshold is? There are various benchmarks (and classes of benchmarks) that you might choose to define such a threshold.

Needless to say, our high-frequency data showing how the global mean temperature changes annually from one year to another or between one decade and the following one only exist in the recent 100 years. We really don't possess any geological data that could reliably reconstruct the annual temperatures from individual years or decades well before 1900. The older, e.g. geological proxies always tend to smear and homogenize the temperatures over timescales comparable to a century or longer so the reliable information about the magnitude of faster-than-centennial temperature oscillations in the distant past is lost.

What does it imply? For a rational person, it simply means that what we have observed in the last 100 years should define our expectation about what is the natural, normal change (or dynamics) of the global mean (or other) temperature in one century – to say the least, it's in the ballpark of the normal changes and it defines the right order of magnitude of such centennial changes. We just don't have any better numbers if want to arrive to a justified expectation and the Earth's climate system is just too complicated for us to calculate this slope from the first principles. At least, it seems impossible if we want the error of such calculations to be much smaller than 50 or 100 percent.

So we don't have any other century that the more or less known change of the global mean temperature in the 20th century could be compared with! That's why there exists no empirical basis for the assertion that the 20th century temperature change was "dramatic". Dramatic relatively to what? It was the first century from which we could have learned what is "normal" but some people have learned nothing. To "doubt" that the observed change was comparable to the normal, natural centennial temperature changes means to be biased.

We may also compare the 20th century temperature change with some other temperature changes – not necessarily those of the Earth's global mean temperature. The LHC accelerates the protons from the 1.9 K (colder than the cosmic microwave background) needed to operate the magnets to 40,000,000,000,000,000 K which is the temperature associated with the proton-proton collisions. OK, you don't want to hear about the LHC but even more mundane situations are connected with large temperature swings.

The temperature on the Moon changes between 100 K and 400 K within half a day (it's the Sun, and not CO2, that is responsible for these swings). That's about 400 times wider interval of temperatures than the claimed "dramatic" temperature change that the Earth needed to be accumulating for 100 years. Even on Earth, temperature changes that are just 10 times smaller than those on the Moon may occur within a day or two (Czechia experiences temperatures that are 25 °C lower than those we saw a week ago – and be sure that I remember such changes from my childhood as well, they were always possible). Are you really serious that 0.7 °C temperature change per century is "dramatic"? Write a drama about this "dramatic" change and check whether it will beat William Shakespeare's dramas.

Most of us can't feel a 0.7 °C temperature change of the air surrounding us even if it occurs within a fraction of a second. Now, slow down this negligible temperature change so that it is diluted to a whole century. Will you feel it or is it more likely that you will die before you feel anything related to the temperature?

The adjective "dramatic" for the temperature change 0.7 °C is just complete rubbish. The right adjective is "negligible" relatively to every change that matters and "by definition normal" relatively to the centennial temperature change we should expect based on the empirical evidence – and our expectations should be empirically rooted, after all.

I think that many climate alarmists must know that phrases such as "remarkable coincidences" or "dramatic changes" are lies. But they have almost no problem to emit these lies because these words are "qualitative" and not "quantitative" so it's not really possible to rigorously prove that they're lies. I can convince any sensible and honest person that the 0.7 °C temperature change seen in the 20th century is negligible but those who claim that the change was "dramatic" may always construct a contrived interpretation or argument that will justify the otherwise indefensible adjective. By these demagogic words, they are changing the gullible people's perceptions but they're also protected against rock-solid proofs that they're liars because their statements aren't really well-defined.

They're still dishonest to neglect the actually crucial empirical and other scientific data and to pronounce similar untrue albeit fuzzy adjectives but honesty isn't their top priority. They're obsessed with something that they consider more important than the truth. That's the ultimate reason why Daniel Shenton denies the obvious and elementary proofs that the Earth isn't flat (just use a percent of the Flat Earth Society's budget to buy an air ticket around the Earth to check that it's round!) and why he and his fellow climate alarmists continue to spread the preposterous, indefensible, insultingly stupid myth that a dangerous global climate change is underway.

And that's the memo.
Read More
Posted in climate, science and society | No comments

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

An anomaly-like argument in favor of SUSY

Posted on 11:06 PM by Unknown

A new Higgs tadpole cancellation condition reformulating the hierarchy problem
Strings 2013 [talks] is underway.
The first hep-ph paper today probably got to that exclusive place because the authors were excited and wanted to grab the spot. Andre de Gouvea, Jennifer Kile, and Roberto Vega-Morales of Illinois chose the title
\(H\rightarrow \gamma\gamma\) as a Triangle Anomaly: Possible Implications for the Hierarchy Problem
They point out a curious feature of the diagrams calculating the Higgs boson decay to two photons (yes, it's the process that seemed to have a minor excess at the LHC but this excess went away): while the diagram is finite, one actually gets different results according to the choice of the regularization.

\({\Huge \Rightarrow}\)

In particular, the \(d=4\) direct calculation leads to a finite result but it actually violates the gauge invariance so it can't be right. It should be disturbing for you that wrong results may arise from quantum field theory calculations even if you don't encounter any divergence.




However, the right fix is known: work with a regularization, typically dimensional regularization, that automatically respects the gauge invariance. Using dim reg, in \(d=4-\epsilon\) dimensions, one automatically gets the right result. However, it still disagrees with the wrong result computed directly in \(d=4\).




While this episode doesn't mean that QFT is ill-defined or inconsistent and we actually know how to do things correctly, the finite-yet-wrong result in \(d=4\) surely sounds bizarre. The authors propose a new condition on quantum field theories: this strangeness shouldn't be there. In other words, the wrong, Ward-identity-violating terms in the \(d=4\) calculation should cancel. When they cancel, the \(d=4\) calculation will agree with the correct dim reg \(d=4-\epsilon\) calculation.

The paper suggests that this cancellation is a new general principle of physics that constrains the allowed spectra of particles and fields and that should be added next to the usual triangle diagram gauge anomaly cancellation conditions in the Standard Model and similar gauge theories.

Note that the triangle anomaly diagrams may be blamed on linear divergences in the integrals. Here, the new type of an "anomaly" that should be canceled is also related to the linearly divergent part of certain integrals because they behave differently under the shift of momenta. So even the computational origin of their new "anomaly" resembles the case of the chiral anomaly. In some sense, the "new" anomaly only differs from the well-known triangle anomaly by its replacement of one external gauge boson with the Higgs boson.



These diagrams that have to cancel are close to some Higgs tadpole diagrams – Feynman diagrams you would use to compute the shift of the Higgs vacuum expectation value (vev). The "tadpole cancellation conditions" are well-known to string theorists but they weren't really discussed in the context of ordinary 4D quantum field theories yet. I suppose that there should be a more natural way to phrase and justify the Higgs tadpole cancellation condition. The condition looks like eqn (36)\[

3ge^2M_W + \frac{e^2 g m_H^2}{2M_W} +\sum_{\rm scalars} 2\lambda_S v e_s^2-\!\!\sum_{\rm fermions}\!\! 2\lambda_f^2 v e_f^2 = 0

\] Supersymmetry seems to be the only known natural principle that cancels the new "anomaly". The authors have only checked it by some uninspiring brute force calculation in the MSSM as a function of several parameters. I guess that there's a simple proof that supersymmetry – unbroken or broken at an arbitrary scale – cancels the new "anomaly" condition.

It's probably true and they probably realize that the new condition is mostly equivalent to the usual unbearable lightness and naturalness of the Higgs' being. However, if you might phrase the condition for naturalness as a version of an anomaly cancellation condition, it would probably be (or at least look) much more inevitable than the usual arguments discussing the hierarchy problem.
Read More
Posted in string vacua and phenomenology | No comments

Should and could science act as a religion?

Posted on 10:58 PM by Unknown
Sabine Hossenfelder wrote an interesting essay that I mostly sympathize with:
Science should be more like religion
First, she believes that the 21st century is the century of the death of religions and the completion of the scientific revolution. This comment – many of us could say an optimistic comment – sounds so 1960s. If visions such as Eurabia become reality, the 21st century will mark the demise of the scientific attitudes and the return to the medieval superstitions, at least on the Old Continent.



Second, she concisely summarizes and exemplifies some qualitative differences between science and religion.

Third, she tells us that many people tend to ignore religions' commonalities with science and benefits they bring. I totally agree with that. Science and religion differ in some important ways but they still share some roots linked to the the human emotions, amazement, and curiosity – things that make us more precious than most animals. And aside from things that directly contradict science, religion also says many things that may have helped the human societies and that don't contradict science.

Fourth, it turns out that Sabine's most important inspiration that religions may offer to the scientists is a tool that should speed up her expected completion of the scientific revolution and the death of the religions: the effortless methods by which religions have penetrated and still penetrate into billions of minds. Sabine says that scientists should learn to become good speakers and preachers who are not dissimilar to the most captivating priests.

It's perhaps a nice and intriguing plan. It may also be a counterproductive or impossible one. Which adjectives are right? ;-)




While my attitude to religions has never been downright hostile – like my attitude to leftwingers, anti-string crackpots, and several other groups – I have never been meaningfully religious in any sense. But for decades, I have been noticing certain advantages that the religious people enjoy in the society.

Centuries ago, they had the right to burn an ideologically inconvenient person at stake – as a heretic. This special right has pretty much survived in numerous countries of the Islamic Anticivilization. Even in democratic countries, religions of various kinds enjoy some protection of a sort.

In many countries, you may even face trouble if you mention that Jesus Christ may have been an ordinary person or ħe didn't exist at all. Or if you inform anyone that Mohammed was a jerk who was sleeping with underaged girls that made Silvio's Berlusconi Ruby the Heartstealer a mature woman in comparison. (Poor Silvio got 7 years.)




But even the freedom to talk about "less personal" aspects of science and religion may be restricted in various otherwise civilized countries because such a freedom could clash with the sensibilities of the religious folks. I have always been amazed that the scientific "belief system" has never enjoyed a similar kind of protection.

Now, the science ends up with many conclusions that differ from the axioms of religions. More importantly, it has a very different methodology how the truth is being chosen from the candidate truths. But from some viewpoint, these are technicalities. What may be more important is that science may be – and should be – taken as seriously as religious people see religions and their teachings.

To be personal, let me mention that just like a Christian may be offended when he hears some unpleasant stories about Jesus Christ, I am offended when I hear people saying dismissive things about quantum mechanics, relativity, string theory, or some other important portion of science. I would surely like most of these folks to be burned at stake if there were a humane and acceptable infrastructure for such things. ;-)

But scientific gems aren't being defended in this way. Lawmakers etc. seem to believe that only lies, superstitions, and similar trash need to be protected. The actual truth doesn't need to be protected, the consensus seems to say. I just happen to disagree. Note that while science has followed a completely different methodology to reach its conclusions about the truth, we have a much greater confidence in many of its conclusions than religious people should have in any of the pillars of their faith. But the prevailing opinion seems to be that the scientific truth doesn't deserve the protection.

Why is that? The methodology with which science finds its truths is different from the methodology of religions. Of course that I think that the scientific method is superior just like the religious people may think that the religious method is superior. I have already proposed to treat these differences as technicalities. Science and religions also follow different kinds of "spiritual leaders". While science marches in the footsteps of some of the smartest, most hard-working, educated, sometimes modest, sometimes self-confident, but uniformly curious people such as Albert Einstein, religions get inspired by a mixture of folks of many types with an important flavor added by loud bigots, mass killers, morons, and power-thirsty demagogues. Maybe this difference between the leaders is why the societies think that it's OK to insult scientific insights but not the religious sensibilities? Only jerks and their mindless bootlickers need some protection, right?

But I didn't really want to write a text suggesting that everything is bad about religions because I don't really believe so. My main point is different: I am frustrated by the fact that the immense wisdom that science has brought to the mankind – including the journey that has led to the insights (and that will lead to new insights in the future) itself – isn't passionately believed to be a set of precious gems that deserve to be worshiped. Almost no one seems to be passionate about science. Almost whenever I see someone talking about science to a broader group, soon or later (usually very early!) I have to witness a sourball who really hates science and finds it boring and despicable. Almost every layman thinks that any talk about science is a reason for frustration, something we should emit poisonous words about. It's literally everywhere.

Yesterday, I watched an interview with Lisa Randall. The host asked (here) whether it was true that – as he understands it – the extra dimensions are just some boring refined junk that science chooses to study because the simpler kinds of junk have already been thrown in the trash bin. Yes, this is what extra dimensions – or at least every genuine scientific theory that surpasses its less accurate and less complete predecessors (something we can't reliably say about the extra dimensions yet) – exactly is. And this is why it is so magnificently glorious. This is what science is all about. Science is all about finding ever better theories that succeed where their previously triumphant predecessors failed.

Perhaps we have gotten used to the fact that we can't crucify the host for his staggering blasphemy. But it's worse than that. There doesn't even seem to be a consensus that by this dismissive talk about the most universal essence, spirit, and indeed the very point of science, he is proving himself to be a completely uneducated, uncultural imbecile. Why? Do all the people really misunderstand that he is an imbecile or is there just some suffocating atmosphere in the society that tells us that we shouldn't even say these self-evident things?

You may rightfully object that I should have avoided these morally colored comments because the actual reason why people are this dismissive about science and its insights is not their being immoral; it's simply their being stupid. They can try to learn something but there are certain innate limitations that can't be surpassed and the missing desire to actually understand science is the ultimate reason why they will remain ignorant and unexcited, even about fundamental questions.

And that's the main reason why I tend to think that this whole dream about a religion-resembling, science-worshiping community of billions of people is a mirage. (It took me a few years to understand that not even scientology was the science-based church I was looking for.) There simply don't exist billions of people who are capable of genuinely learning about the value of science – I mean a sufficient learning that is enough to make them "feel" why "science akbar" (this is a variation of "Allahu akbar" – "God is greater" – but I guess you have only heard about "Allahu akbar": this shows something, too). On the other hand, everyone is intelligent enough to buy some infantile superstitions served by the religions. Those are the ultimate reasons why churches may have hundreds of millions or billions of members while "passionate science fans" can't become billions.

And even mass movements that sometimes claim to be about science – like the environmentalist movement (and perhaps the Marxist movement in general) – are more or less guaranteed to become just another irrational religion that finds itself in a fundamental conflict with science, its spirit, its values, most of its insights, and its methodology. The reason is that in such mass movements, other priorities that the generic people actually care about (need for egalitarianism; the dream about the return to the non-technological civilization) get in charge and these priorities aren't equivalent to science. In groups of people that are too inclusive, science is reduced either to a misleading sticker or to a slave serving someone more powerful.

These are tough facts but they are facts, anyway. We would love to see science as the fine angel that enjoys the love and protection from all the good people who are – as we like to hope – a majority of the mankind. People such as your humble correspondent who have a clear theoretical inclination in their attitude to the values of the world are passionate about the scientific truth and view it as a delicate pure spirit that should be loved. But most people just don't see anything of the sort.

There are still lots of people who know some science and technology and who benefit from it which is the main or only reason why they have some respect for it. After all, the whole human species has benefited from advantages relatively to some other species that could be summarized as their better skills in science and especially technology. But note that the actual reason why science has been important according to the evolution of life is something completely different than its being a pure angel linked to the Creator.

Instead, whether you like it or not, evolution sees science as the nuclear bomb detonating in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. (The cavemen and early farmers have found similar but less advanced technologies that made them more competitive.) In this real-world optics, science has always been a source of additional powers, however indirect, and these powers could have made small groups of people (or the mankind itself) much more powerful than large groups of people (or other organisms) that don't have this power. The first two nuclear bombs were developed by hundreds of people if I count really everyone; they have killed 100,000 or so. Clearly, the ratios may become even more extreme.

I don't like to think – and I will never think – about science in this applied-research-oriented way. For me, science starts with the pure science, with the passion for the truth. But because the mankind has evolved according to the laws of evolution, it's more or less inevitable that most humans only see science through the lens of its applications that have influenced the evolution of life (and societies). So it's perhaps inevitable that an overwhelming majority of the people don't see any pure angels inside science. In my optics, they may be uncultural morons and dirty sciencewise infidels. I can't do anything efficient about it because by contradicting this fact about the majority's attitude to science, I would contradict an important scientific theory, namely Darwin's theory of evolution.

Science may be marketed as something that belongs to all the people but if you actually only count those who "sleep with science", it will always be a tiny elite – or let's say, more neutrally, a minority. This minority shouldn't really try to throw the pearls of science to everyone because it's mostly throwing pearls to the swines. I hope that the swines who like physics and who managed to read this blog entry won't be insulted by my decision to use swines as an insult. In fact, I tend to think that those who "sleep with science" should try to maintain a somewhat more exclusive access to the applications of science, too. We have gotten used to the paradigm that science (including its useful technological applications) should be spread for free but maybe this whole attitude is counterproductive because we're de facto artificially setting the market price of science to zero – the price of anything that you can have for free – and this could be one of the reasons why people aren't passionate about science.

I hope that you have understood that I wrote these ideas in a far more dramatic way than what I believe. But I do believe in the essence of what I have written, anyway. The tone may have been a bit provocative or humorous but the message I want to communicate is damn real.

Incidentally, there are even some details in the discussion on Backreaction where I totally agree with Sabine. Brian Clegg wrote:
I would disagree on one point - I think we are all born agnostics, not atheists, and that agnosticism is the truly scientific approach (even Dawkins has said that technically he is agnostic, not atheist). See http://brianclegg.blogspot.com/2013/06/of-agnostics-and-unicorns.html
This is a sort of a politically correct, fashionable softening of the terminology. If you want to be really smart, you don't say that you're an atheist. Instead, you're an agnostic. Well, I think it is bullshit, especially in this context. Sabine rightfully explained that an "agnostic" is someone who's been exposed to the idea of God, gods, or religion and he or she decided that the question is either ill-defined or its answer is unknown or undecidable.

But to switch to this status of an "agnostic", you must first be exposed to the idea of God, gods, or religions. This exposure doesn't occur before you're born which does mean that humans are atheists, not agnostics, when they're born.

Maybe the disagreement here is about something that goes beyond terminology and image. Clearly, religious people often believe that humans are born as God's babies. Because agnostics are in between the believers and the atheists, at least they claim so, they could also believe that there is some chance or some sense in which people could be born as God's babies, too – so they could already be born with some framework to answer religious questions, i.e. born as agnostics.

OK, perhaps, but if this is the question that decides about the difference, then I am an atheist, not an agnostic. According to science, people just can't be born with any special relationship to any Creator or any agent linked to the fundamental laws governing the Universe, so they may have no opinions about it, either. They're born as clever pieces of meat that is able to perform certain functions and learn many other functions as it gets older. They need to learn something before they may try to answer some questions based on the language, including religious ones. They need some empirical input to be even motivated to search for such answers. These things simply can't happen before they're born – and when we talk about any specific enough idea of God, they can't take place without an interaction with other humans because such an interaction is needed to communicate all the traditions and ways how all the ideas are conventionally framed.

In this sense, God (one close to any particular religion's God or gods) is a purely man-made construct. I may still be agnostic about some more general types of God but as long as I respect the insights that science has made, such a not-yet-excluded God simply can't have any special relationship with humans so humans can't be born with this relationship, either. They're inevitably born as Godless babies – as atheists.

Brian Clegg tells us on his blog that he is annoyed by suggestions that God is analogous to the unicorns. The latter may be ruled out (because they are material) but the former can't, he says. I think that this qualitative difference is completely spurious. From the viewpoint of evolving scientific knowledge, God is extremely analogous to the unicorns. All of them were originally "very clean, nearly holy" creatures that lived at a particular place and that had some nearly anthropomorphic properties. When the strongest versions of these hypotheses or beliefs were found incompatible with some easily accessible empirical data, people started to weaken (and are still weakening) the hypotheses, making God and unicorns ever more abstract and invisible. Of course, people wouldn't talk about something invisible if it had no impact so they're also strengthening the "powers and special properties" that these increasingly legendary creatures possess. The only difference between God and unicorns is that the former is still believed much more passionately than the latter – largely because It or He or She was assigned much more ambitious virtues and skills.

Arun mentions that
Islam teaches that everyone is born Muslim, until parents corrupt them.
Well, nice. But that's exactly the type of statements that are agreed by the reasonable people to be nothing else than an arrogant medieval stupidity, a demagogy designed to demonize the atheists and believers in other faith systems. Only Muslims are the proper people, everyone else is a dirty renegade. The reality is exactly the opposite. Everything that is refined, clean, safe, deep, going beyond the basic material needs required for survival, and so on is a result of the human activity, patient refinement, and accumulation of wealth so we're not born with these attributes. Islam and its holy books are man-made products, too.

We're born nude, with bare buttocks, and relatively uneducated. We may still be cute when we're born but we're born just like all other animals – at least some of them are cute when they're born, too. Even the underwear and basic clothes are something we add after we are born, along with all the required exercises, work we have to do, and especially social traditions, habits, myths, and sometimes valuable knowledge, too.

This reminds me of the crazy comments that capitalism causes poverty, and so on. In Feynman's words, the idea of distributing everything evenly is based on a theory that there’s only X amount of stuff in the world, that somehow we took it away from the poorer countries in the first place, and therefore we should give it back to them. Quite on the contrary. People are born poor. They don't naturally possess anything beyond their naked bodies. The wealth is something they create and knowledge, know-how, man-made structures connecting the society, and accumulation of the capital are necessary conditions for the creation of wealth. But you won't be able to explain these basic facts about the inner workings of the world to Arun who is both an apologist for Islamic stupidities as well as an unhinged Marxist – a really explosive combination of two powerful (7th century and 19th century) delusions.

By the way, I also endorse Sabine's subsequent comments about the consistency of observations with science (and not religions) and about the non-existence of a "scientific culture" that would be an inseparable property of science in the human society and that would imply a limitation of science analogous to the limitations of the religions. Science doesn't have any limitations of this kind. People and groups of people may have limitations in their ability to think scientifically but science itself has no such limitations.

I will proofread this text later. The final episode of Circus Humberto is getting started on TV.
Read More
Posted in religion, science and society | No comments

Jiří Rusnok, the new technocratic Czech PM

Posted on 8:24 AM by Unknown
Ms Miroslava Němcová (center right ODS, the current speaker of the House), a decent conservative previously loyal to President Klaus, and a former cancer survivor and a hippie as a young lady, could become the first female Czechoslovak or Czech prime minister (101/200 of the lawmakers vowed to support her government).

The center-right coalition agreed that she was a good choice. On the other hand, the communist and socialist opposition hysterically insisted on early parliamentary elections.

However, the new Czech president, Miloš Zeman, demonstrated that he will be exerting a presidential influence that is probably gonna be (even) stronger than what we remember from the Klaus era.




He decided to name a technocratic government. So even the 46th prime minister of Czechoslovakia or Czechia will be male. The new prime minister – leading a government that will quickly replace the current acting government in resignation and that will continue as a government in resignation (because no parliamentary political party really supports Zeman's solution) – is the economist Mr Jiří Rusnok. The name is no surprise to me because Zeman has been suggesting that he preferred a technocratic government for several days and I have known that Rusnok is Zeman's most favorite economist since January – and perhaps for years.




It's my understanding that he is a very competent career economist – and he will also be the wittiest one among the otherwise extremely boring technocratic prime ministers such as Josef Tošovský, Jan Fischer, and (in decaying Czechoslovakia) Jan Stráský. Rusnok's career is very colorful and painting an image of an opportunist, however.

During communism, he hasn't made it to the Communist Party membership (although he was a "candidate for the membership") but he was already working as a member of the State Planning Commission. Between 1992 and 1998, he was a top economist working for the largest labor union in our country. In 1998, he joined the social democratic party and quickly became a deputy of the minister of labor and welfare.

In 2001, he became the finance minister in Miloš Zeman's own government and between 2002 and 2003 he was the minister of trade and industry in the much more left-wing Vladimír Špidla's government.

The year 2003 also marks the main year for his divorce with the social democracy. At the very beginning of the year, this lawmaker of the social democratic party openly endorsed right-wing Václav Klaus – the winner in the pipeline – for the president, dissing the official social democratic candidate whose name I had to look up again because I completely forgot about him, an unknown lawyer named Jaroslav Bureš. (In pretty much every round, Klaus participated but he always had different competitors who really couldn't compete with him so Klaus finally won despite the fact that the Parliament was on the other side of the political aisle at that time.)

Since 2005, he was important in the Association of Pension Funds and since 2006, he led the ING Pension Fund. In 2010, he finally completed his divorce with the social democratic party that he labeled as a populist party building on mass redistribution of the taxpayer money.

I completely disagree with the recipe that led to the political death of the outgoing PM Mr Petr Nečas but on the other hand, the smooth resolution leading to a respectable name such as Rusnok's name brings me some confidence that even coup-like surprises such as the cops in masks that occupy government buildings (and this description we know from the media is a bit of an exaggeration) aren't really excessively dangerous events for a sufficiently stabilized democracy.

At the same moment, I feel that the direct presidential elections gave the current president a stronger political backing and self-confidence. In some sense, the parliamentary democracy as we have known it for decades has been weakened in favor of a nearly presidential, U.S.-style democracy. I have mixed feelings on whether or not it is such a bad thing. I am afraid it may become a very bad thing once Zeman is replaced by a hardcore populist idiot sometime in the future.

The government won't win a confidence vote in the Parliament but let me tell you something: t would probably win mine especially because I know it's a better solution than one that is almost guaranteed to arise from the next early elections. It's likely that the Rusnok government will only construct the next state budget and will be replaced after September 2013 early elections.
Read More
Posted in Czechoslovakia, politics | No comments

Monday, June 24, 2013

Larry Summers vs Stephen Hawking

Posted on 5:25 AM by Unknown
Four days ago, the left-leaning Israeli daily Haaretz published a de facto interview with Larry Summers, the ex-president of an ex-employer of mine:
Former Harvard president Summers rebukes Hawking for boycotting Israeli conference
Note that the fastest free way to get to the article (plus 9 more articles a month) is to "register for free" and choose "Facebook".

Summers, along with Stanley Fischer (an equally Jewish ex-teacher of Summers at MIT and an outgoing governor of Bank of Israel), was recently named as the most promising candidate to replace Ben Bernanke behind the steering wheel of America's central bank. He is bullish on the U.S. (and Israeli) economy, predicting a 3% growth by the end of the year and his answers don't unambiguously prove that he would accept Bernanke's job.




But the most important part of Summers' answers to Haaretz were his opinions about Stephen Hawking's boycott of a presidential conference in Israel. It shouldn't be shocking that Summers chose to publicly react because the "president" from whom the adjective "presidential" is derived is no one else than Shimon Peres, a long-time friend of Summers'.

It's been reported that Noam Chomsky and a few comrades were behind the pressure that led Stephen Hawking to the boycott which is why Summers may want to start to bring some ethical principles back to his town, Cambridge Massachusetts, before he chastises a famous physics professor in the other Cambridge.

I know both men rather well, admire them (although, if I weren't afraid of being insulting, I could say that in recent years, Summers the economist sometimes sounds like Paul Krugman light: I actually do remember Summers the warrior against a spiralling debt rather well), have spoken to Summers many times and, have touched Stephen Hawking ;-) (although being a co-author of Andy Strominger who's been a co-author with Stephen Hawking might be counted as a more intimate path towards Stephen Hawking; no, I haven't fainted in his office yet).

The men would probably agree with one another – and with your humble correspondent – if they discussed feminism and related topics. But needless to say, Summers is right when it comes to boycotts.




Summers says that the right path towards the resolution of things that we see as offensive is a debate rather than ostracism. Academic interchange shouldn't suffer just because this suffering may be used as another tool of political pressure. Except for extreme circumstances. Right. Moreover, Summers disagrees with the idea of singling out Israel – a country that surely doesn't look like an exceptional black sheep in the context of the Middle East where brutal human right violations, chemical weapons, and beheading are on the daily schedule.

I totally sympathize with his second argument and I do agree with most of the first one, too. Well, there exist contexts in which politics and the law are "at the top" and the scientific interactions are nothing else than "examples of trade and aid" that may be uniformly banned if a rogue state could benefit from those things. On the other hand, it's very problematic if such boycotts are invented by individuals or "cliques" in separate industries such as science and it's counterproductive if interactions that may only bring people closer, and not further, and that don't represent a tangible physical threat are discouraged. After all, the freedom that our nations and their governments guarantee for researchers are among the things that make us better than some... other nations (not to mention our own nations in the Middle Ages).

Needless to say, these debates about the right way to criticize Israel are completely academic from my viewpoint because as far as I can say, a politically sensible person in Europe or America should think about the optimum ways to strengthen and extend Israel – to add "Palestine", Syria, and Lebanon to its territory as first three steps, for example – instead of thinking about ways to harass this island of relative freedom and reason in the ocean of unrestricted violence and medieval brainwashing.

Moreover, the boundary between anti-Israel proclamations and bad ol' anti-Semitism is very subtle.

I would say that anti-Zionism is just the "politically correct" label that contemporary anti-Semites (sorry, Jews, your being Jewish doesn't mean that I can't count you as elements of this set! In fact, due to some characteristic Jewish masochism, many of you are among the near-leaders of the set!) like to use for their attitudes whose beef is still the same. Also, I have carefully studied the evolution of anti-Semitism here in Central Europe of the 1930s. It did start with various selective regulations that encouraged non-Jews to treat Jews differently (less pleasantly) and the gas chambers were largely inevitable end points of this journey. This whole journey is unacceptable for me from the very beginning and I think that it's an ethical rule to treat Israel on par with any other similarly large (e.g. European) democratic country that is comparably advanced. Anything else is more or less manifest anti-Semitism.
Read More
Posted in freedom vs PC, markets, Middle East, politics, science and society | No comments
Newer Posts Older Posts Home
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)

Popular Posts

  • Ostragene: realtime evolution in a dirty city
    Ostrava , an industrial hub in the Northeast of the Czech Republic, is the country's third largest city (300,000). It's full of coal...
  • Origin of the name Motl
    When I was a baby, my father would often say that we come a French aristocratic dynasty de Motl – for some time, I tended to buy it ;-). Muc...
  • Likely: latest Atlantic hurricane-free date at least since 1941
    Originally posted on September 4th. Now, 5 days later, it seems that no currently active systems will grow to a hurricane so the records wi...
  • Papers on the ER-EPR correspondence
    This new, standardized, elegant enough name of the Maldacena-Susskind proposal that I used in the title already exceeds the price of this b...
  • Bernhard Riemann: an anniversary
    Georg Friedrich Bernhard Riemann was born in a village in the Kingdom of Hanover on September 17th, 1826 and died in Selasca (Verbania), No...
  • New iPhone likely to have a fingerprint scanner
    One year ago, Apple bought AuthenTec , a Prague-based security company ( 7 Husinecká Street ), for $356 million. One may now check the Czech...
  • Prediction isn't the right method to learn about the past
    Happy New Year 2013 = 33 * 61! The last day of the year is a natural moment for a blog entry about time. At various moments, I wanted to wri...
  • Lubošification of Scott Aaronson is underway
    In 2006, quantum computing guy Scott Aaronson declared that he was ready to write and defend any piece of nonsensical claim about quantum gr...
  • A slower speed of light: MIT relativistic action game
    In the past, this blog focused on relativistic optical effects and visualizations of Einstein's theory: special relativity (download Re...
  • Eric Weinstein's invisible theory of nothing
    On Friday, I received an irritated message from Mel B. who had read articles in the Guardian claiming that Eric Weinstein found a theory of ...

Categories

  • alternative physics (7)
  • astronomy (49)
  • biology (19)
  • cars (2)
  • climate (93)
  • colloquium (1)
  • computers (18)
  • Czechoslovakia (57)
  • Denmark (1)
  • education (7)
  • Europe (33)
  • everyday life (16)
  • experiments (83)
  • France (5)
  • freedom vs PC (11)
  • fusion (3)
  • games (2)
  • geology (5)
  • guest (6)
  • heliophysics (2)
  • IQ (1)
  • Kyoto (5)
  • landscape (9)
  • LHC (40)
  • markets (40)
  • mathematics (37)
  • Middle East (12)
  • missile (9)
  • murders (4)
  • music (3)
  • philosophy of science (73)
  • politics (98)
  • religion (10)
  • Russia (5)
  • science and society (217)
  • sports (5)
  • string vacua and phenomenology (114)
  • stringy quantum gravity (90)
  • TBBT (5)
  • textbooks (2)
  • TV (8)
  • video (22)
  • weather records (30)

Blog Archive

  • ▼  2013 (341)
    • ►  September (14)
    • ►  August (42)
    • ►  July (36)
    • ▼  June (39)
      • America spying on Germany, EU
      • Bob Carter's academic job "not renewed"
      • Dobrodošli u EU, Hrvatska
      • Strings 2013
      • Jacques Distler on his lost new physics bet
      • The IPCC and the Flat Earth Society may merge now
      • An anomaly-like argument in favor of SUSY
      • Should and could science act as a religion?
      • Jiří Rusnok, the new technocratic Czech PM
      • Larry Summers vs Stephen Hawking
      • Hooper: XENON100 may have seen DM candidates, too
      • Lisa Randall on Higgs, physics, real world
      • Kip Thorne, a star in a Hollywood movie
      • Austin: 1-inch accelerator gets electrons to \(2\G...
      • Obama's new obsession with the global warming myth
      • Supersymmetric Google Hangout with John Ellis
      • Kenneth Wilson, RIP
      • Most species originate in the tropics
      • All proofs in natural and social sciences ultimate...
      • Mike Duff vs an anti-string layman
      • Valentina Tereshkova: 50 years ago
      • There is no classical world
      • Czech police raid on lobbyists and politicians
      • Amazon: 3D printers below $1,200
      • International Linear Collider: Technical Design Re...
      • Murry Salby: CO2 is the integral of temperature
      • Finding and abandoning incorrect general relativit...
      • Bohr model: 100 years ago
      • Toshiba's Westinghouse claims to be the Czech nucl...
      • Maldacena, Susskind: any entanglement is a wormhol...
      • Pros and cons of the U.S. surveillance program
      • Trade war: Chinese solar panels vs EU wine
      • Competing Japanese regions shoot videos to win the...
      • Sea temperature trend: 1.35 ± 0.15 °C per century
      • David Gross on youth, revolutions, conservatives, ...
      • Asymmetric fates of rivers of Pilsen
      • LARES: a discoball for eurocents that supersedes G...
      • Most questions are no good
      • Richard Feynman: Fun To Imagine
    • ►  May (38)
    • ►  April (41)
    • ►  March (44)
    • ►  February (41)
    • ►  January (46)
  • ►  2012 (159)
    • ►  December (37)
    • ►  November (50)
    • ►  October (53)
    • ►  September (19)
Powered by Blogger.

About Me

Unknown
View my complete profile